‘Humans are the beings who have the ability to imagine the future in such detail that they can create it,’ writes Florence Gaub in her bestseller ‘Future’, published in 2023. Since last year, the Franco-German political scientist and futurologist has been Director of Research at the NATO Defense College (NDC) in Rome, a military academy that trains high-ranking officers, diplomats, and civil servants. Together with her team, she analyses possible future scenarios that deviate from expected developments. In this interview, the DAAD alumna explains how she is optimistic about the future despite global crises, why diversity is essential when it comes to future issues, and how her DAAD scholarship has fundamentally shaped her life.

Mrs Gaub, you are an expert on future developments. Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the scenarios for the current global crisis?

It’s easy to get trapped in negativity, but it’s crucial to focus on possibilities. While the issues are real, like climate change, there are always ways to mitigate and address them. Negativity often leads to inaction, but focusing on action empowers you. By stepping away from emotional headlines and looking at facts and solutions, you realise you are not a victim of the future, you can shape it.

As director of the Research Division, can you share what your team focuses on and what you are re currently researching?

Our division works on future problems that are relevant to NATO. We focus on issues that are expected to arise in the next two to five years. We’re not really concerned with what’s happening right now, nor do we look at the distant future, like 2040 or 2050 — there are others in NATO who handle both of those things. We’re currently exploring scenarios regarding the future of warfare, Russia’s strategic outlook, and issues related to the Middle East and North Africa. We’re also examining how factors like climate change might alter the geopolitical landscape.

What methods do you use to develop these scenarios?

We don’t try to predict the future in terms of pinpointing exactly what will happen. Instead, we explore all the possibilities and narrow down those that are most relevant to NATO. The aim is to create an early intellectual warning system, guiding us to say, “Be careful of this future,” or “This future looks good. How do we get there?” Generally, people find it easier to imagine new technologies than to envision different ways of doing things. I’ll give you an example. When you watch old science fiction like Blade Runner or things from the '60s even, it’s very much focused on new technology and how it changes the way people live. But there’s very little about a future of gender relations, a future of how human beings relate to the environment. I think imagination means to take an intellectual flashlight and go into those areas that no one else is lighting up. For example, while others might be concerned about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, my team might explore what happens if the Northern Sea Route opens and its implications for relations with Russia and China.

 

 

To use the imagination as an intellectual flashlight: How does one get there?

To foster creativity, you need to allow for mistakes and create a space where people aren’t afraid to suggest seemingly crazy ideas. Nobody will be punished or laughed at. You need participatory processes where everyone feels invested in the organisation and its outcomes. In my team, we have a flat hierarchy, and I ensure that everyone has a say in the work programme and strategy. We also need time, training, and funds, of course, to support creativity. 

You work in a field that has traditionally been male-dominated. What changes have you seen in recent years, and what needs to happen to promote more female leadership?

When I first joined the NATO Defense College in 2009, the environment was quite different – much less sensitive to gender issues. However, as a researcher, my overall experience has been positive. I’ve faced very little discrimination because, at the end of the day, what matters most is whether you're good at your job. For me to succeed, I benefited from an environment that allowed me to be myself and from my capacity to tolerate being a minority. There are women that want to work in security, but they think, maybe I won’t feel good the whole time in that environment. Maybe you won’t. But what really motivated me was always to think, I'm not doing it just for myself. I’m doing it for all the women behind me. I would like to encourage younger women also to go down that road. When it gets uncomfortable, think to yourself, you’re not just doing this for yourself. You’re doing it for all the others behind you.

How do you see the impact of having more women in leadership roles, particularly in traditionally male-dominated fields like security and defence?

Studies show that diverse groups – especially those with a higher percentage of women – tend to perform better in forecasting and strategic planning. Women, on average, are more likely to listen and collaborate, which is essential when thinking about the future. It’s not about winning a debate but about adapting and adjusting your viewpoint based on others’ perspectives. I’ve noticed a significant shift towards greater sensitivity to these issues within NATO over the years. For instance, we’re moving towards more gender balance in leadership roles, and from 2025, we’ll have a female dean and a female head of academic planning. Change is coming, but it takes time.

How do you think bringing diverse perspectives into strategic discussions changes the outcome?

The more diverse a group, the more accurate they are in exploring the unknowns of the future. Diversity brings different viewpoints, which gives us a much broader picture. In my team, we strive to have a mix of ages, genders, and backgrounds because it enriches our work.

What role does academic exchange play for you personally and in your work?

There’s nothing that can replace academic exchange across cultures. It’s not just a luxury – it’s essential. Experiencing different ways of thinking stimulates your own. For example, studying in Munich was great, but it was in Paris that I learned how to structure my research, and both experiences shaped me as a scholar. Meeting people from other cultures broadens your mind and helps you realise that no single worldview is absolute. This diversity in thought is crucial for both personal growth and innovation. Without academic exchange and the opportunity to get to know the perspectives of other cultures, we’d lose depth, creativity, understanding, and the sense of awe that comes from encountering new perspectives. It’s these moments of discovery that are the essence of being human. For me, my experiences abroad shaped my career, my friendships, and how I see the world today.

Christina Iglhaut (8 October 2024)